Member Mike S. wrote today, and probably speaks for the rest of the members investing with our Absolute Return Strategy: I have been meaning to write and ask why the system keeps buying FXF….. like 12% of the account. Looks like I do not have to worry about hedging, at least for TODAY! Think its
The smallest worm will turn being trodden on
Thinking about themes for 2015 brings to mind Shakepeare’s Henry VI, specifically when Clifford speaks to the king: My gracious liege, this too much lenity And harmful pity must be laid aside. To whom do lions cast their gentle looks? Not to the beast that would usurp their den. Whose hand is that the forest
(Black) Swan Lake Russia
By definition, something that we can “see coming” is not a black swan event. Like Russia. I realize that “past performance does not necessarily predict future results”, but in my experience, past downside performance is a strong indicator of future downside performance. Yes, stocks are rallying now. We’re in the phase right after the initial
Revise 2015 economic forecasts now
For your eyes only. Please do not circulate. [google-drive-embed url=”https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B0YyZc1ybBX8Tko1UlVoNkwtcE0/edit?usp=drivesdk” title=”BB.20141217-economic-outlook.pdf” icon=”https://ssl.gstatic.com/docs/doclist/images/icon_10_pdf_list.png” style=”normal”] Obviously, the forecasts will not come to pass, but we don’t know which way. As bad as things look now (and it will probably get worse before it gets better), there is one wildcard — the departure of Vladimir Putin. Also, I
Russia: worse than 1998?
Art Cashin is on the record, saying yesterday this is not like 1998 all over again. Really? 2:47AM, this comes across the tape: “We couldn’t imagine what’s happening in our worst nightmare even a year ago,” Shvetsov, who oversees financial markets at Bank of Russia, said yesterday. He said the surprise interest-rate increase in the
Is Outside Technical Commentary Still Relevant?
Please do not circulate.
Howard Marks on Risk, Revisited
What risk really means.
The Purpose(lessness) of Forecasts and Commentary
Since I actually read every last piece of outside research before posting it up for you, I asked myself, is there a reason to read publications when the writer is obviously treading water? Am I better off reading a few research papers instead?
Portfolio construction, aircraft location based on sufficient understanding
My trading tools and portfolio calculator have carried all of us through the good times and the bad times, and now, based on the performance characteristics since 2007, it’s time to incorporate what we’ve observed and learned over the past seven years and update the code. Here’s why.
Rosenberg and Weinberg on Inflation
To continue on the “it’s so down, it must soon go up” theme, here are David Rosenberg and Weinberg on inflation.