There were an unusual number of stories from the day that demand a second look. They may not seem important at first glance because we are trained to accept the usual “explanations.” This is very dangerous.


Market statistics are often crunched (A New Kind of Fed Day — BPC and APC) as if they can help us determine the odds of a future outcome. This is not possible because there is no “average” day, week or month any more than there is an “average” cancer survivor. Mechanical system traders who count on making “average” wins and losses go broke.
As I write, the seventh and decisive hockey playoff game between the Vancouver Canucks and the defending champions Chicago Blackhawks is just about to start. Before the playoffs, sentiment was high.

Olympic History Indicates Vancouver Canucks Should Win 2011 Stanley Cup
As Bob McKenzie of TSN pointed out Monday (via Nate Jones of ESPN), the last two times a Canadian city hosted the Olympic games, the NHL team from that city had a nice little parade the following year. Montreal hosted the Summer Games in 1976, and in 1977, they were the NHL’s best regular season team. They also won the Stanley Cup.
In 1988, Calgary hosted the Winter Games, and in 1989, the Flames won the President’s Trophy and the Stanley Cup. As you surely have picked up on by now, Vancouver hosted the 2010 Winter Games, and in 2011, the Canucks have won the President’s Trophy.
All that’s left is a Stanley Cup, right? The Canucks would be the first Canadian team since the 1993 Canadiens to win the Cup, should they complete the feat this season.

The Canucks won the first three games before giving up the next three in yet another major episode of choking when it really counts. Now it’s,

The Vancouver Canucks (series tied 3-3) have one last chance tonight to avoid becoming just the fourth team in NHL history to blow a 3-0 series lead when they host Game Seven of this Western Conference Quarterfinal series against the Chicago Blackhawks at Rogers Arena.

I sure hope they get lucky tonight because the statistics are useless to predict the outcome of any one game.